Position a rack in the center position in the oven.
Preheat the oven to 350 degrees F.
Lightly coat a 2 1/2-3-quart casserole dish with nonstick spray.
In a large pot of salted, boiling water, add the pasta and cook until just shy of al dente, according to the package directions.
Drain the pasta thoroughly.
Drizzle 1/2 tablespoon of the olive oil over the pasta and stir gently to coat.
In a Dutch oven or a large, deep skillet over medium heat, add the remaining olive oil.
Add the carrots, the onions, the bell peppers, the salt, and the black pepper to the hot oil and cook, while stirring, until the onions are golden-brown and soft, about 10 minutes.
Add the garlic, the hot sauce, the smoked paprika, and the cumin to the vegetable mixture and cook, while stirring constantly, until it is very fragrant, about 30 seconds.
Increase the heat to medium-high.
Add the beef to the vegetable mixture and cook, while crumbling the meat, until the beef is no longer pink, about 5-7 minutes.
Drain the excess fat from the Dutch oven.
Add the broth to the beef mixture and use a wooden spoon to stir to combine, while scraping the bottom of the pot to release the browned bits.
Add the tomato sauce to the beef mixture and stir to combine.
Bring the beef mixture to a simmer and allow it to simmer for 3 minutes.
Transfer the Dutch oven from the heat.
Add the pasta, the Greek yogurt, and 3/4 cup of the cheddar cheese to the beef mixture and stir to combine.
Transfer the beef mixture to the prepared casserole dish.
Sprinkle the top of the beef mixture with the remaining cheddar cheese, the panko breadcrumbs, and 1/2 of the green onions.
Bake until the casserole is hot and the cheese is melted, about 15 minutes.
Switch the oven to broil and broil the casserole until the breadcrumbs are browned, about 2-3 minutes.
Allow the casserole to rest for 5 minutes.
Serve garnished with the remaining green onions.